Swing state exit polls show Hillary won "economy" voters

So, this is interesting.

According to a broad swath of popular understanding, Donald Trump will be the next president because he narrowly won three critical states — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — powered by working class voters frustrated with economic intransigence.

But that’s not what exit polling shows in those states…. Exit polls show Hillary Clinton winning a majority of the vote from people who told pollsters that the economy was the most important issue facing the country. What’s more, in each state, a majority of voters said that was the case….

How can she win a majority of the majority and still lose? Because she lost with other groups worse.

The exit poll questionnaire gave voters a choice between four options for the most important issue. Clinton was generally preferred by those who said foreign policy was the most important issue, too, but Trump was preferred by those who saw immigration or terrorism as most important. The key is the margins. On average, about 13 percent of people in the 27 states said foreign policy was most important and they preferred Clinton by an average of 30 points. On average, voters who said the economy was most important preferred Clinton by 7.3. But on terrorism, rated most important by a fifth of voters, on average, Trump led by an average of 21.8 points. On immigration (most important to an average of 12.2 percent of respondents)? A huge 42.1 percentage point lead for Trump.

Shorter: a majority of swing-state voters said the economy was the most important issue, and among those voters, Hillary won by about 7 points.  But she got slaughtered among voters who said terrorism or immigration was the #1 issue.  Bottom line:

across the country, the story told by the exit polls seems clear: Trump didn’t win because people were worried about the economy. He won thanks to people who were worried about the subjects of immigration and terrorism that he started hammering on from the very first day of his campaign.

Now, exit polling isn’t always right, so take this with the appropriate amount of salt.  But before you buy into the frame that Democrats lost because of their economic message, look into what the data show.  It’s maybe not so clear.

VAN JONES - Dakota Pipeline Protests as big as the Civil Rights Movement! #NoDAPL

December 4: Bumped -- for today's big win! Turns out that the President's Army Corps of Engineers has something to say. (Previous promotion comment: The president-elect is busy chatting up North Dakota Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp on this and other issues. Does the President have anything to say?) - promoted by hesterprynne

As Morton County’s Sheriff creates a social media team to spew Orwellian language, and a group of veteran’s raises $800,000 through crowd funding and led by Wesley Clark, Jr. deploys in convoy towards North Dakota – WHERE is leadership? When white Bismark said “NO” the DAPL “Trans Energy Partners” began to ram DAPL down the throats of Native Americans at gunpoint – where is the outrage?

Liberal commentator Van Jones says he sees similarities between the demonstrations against the Dakota Access pipeline and the biggest protests of the 1960s.

“To me, this is Selma, this is Birmingham, this is as big a civil rights movement and as big a civil rights moment as you’re ever going to see,” Jones said on Chelsea Handler’s Netflix talk show “Chelsea” in an episode airing Friday.

In a brief clip from the episode, Handler mentions to Jones she wants to visit the protest site and asks what he thinks of the issue.

“They were going to put the pipeline through a white town, and the white people said, ‘Hell no!’ So instead, the Dakota Access company decided to route it through a Native American reservation,” Jones said. “And it turns out that the land that they’re putting it on is some of the most sacred land for Native Americans in the world.”

“For some reason, the mainstream media really hasn’t talked about it as much,” Jones added.

He added that the movement is one of the largest gatherings of Native American tribes since Christopher Columbus arrived in America, calling it the equivalent of the civil rights movement.

Jones called for President Obama to take action to stop the pipeline.

“President Obama is still the president of the United States right now,” he said. “And I think he should tell the Army Corps of Engineers to cancel this whole project. If Trump wants to do it, we’ll deal with that later, but President Obama should stand up and say this has gone far enough and needs to stop and needs to stop right now.”

How the Democrats Blew It

Facepalm. We really were stupid. - promoted by charley-on-the-mta

Hindsight is 20-20 I know, but indulge me.
The Democrats had a clear opportunity in 2009 to establish themselves clearly as the party of the white working class. The first thing they should have done was save a lot of blue-collar jobs. I would have gone big league, and picked an industry that was not only a major employer but the very symbol of a well paying blue collar job. That’s right– I’m talking about the auto industry.
Can you imagine the Democratic landslide in Michigan (and the rest of the upper Midwest) if the Democrats had rammed through a bill saving all those auto industry jobs? And done it over Republican objections? Instead, look at what happened. As other posters on this site have pointed out, the Democrats did absolutely nothing. We just sat around sipping lattes and doing identity politics.
I wouldn’t stop there. Just in case there were white workers who didn’t feel like the auto bailout benefited them personally, I would have done something that would put money in every white worker’s pocket. I would have done something dramatic about energy prices.
I mean fracking. Why oh why did we ever listen to those environmentalists and stop all the fracking? We should have ignored them and let the price of gasoline drop and drop, along with the price of heating oil, and the chances of the Republicans ever taking the presidency. What if energy prices today were a fraction of what they were when the Democrats took over? Picture gasoline at about $2.50/gallon. It seems impossible, but I’m convinced it could have happened. But I guess we’ll never know.
Low gas prices and an entire industry saved. Let some demagogue try run a campaign going after Mexicans and Muslims then.

Senator Sanders in Rolling Stone

Good stuff. Some commentary about what lies ahead in addition to the (necessary) autopsies - promoted by hesterprynne

An Interview with Matt Taibbi worth reading in full. Bernie is careful to avoid some of the pitfalls that have befallen many of us (myself included) in our last three weeks in the Mirror Universe. No Hillary bashing, no assertions he could’ve won, and no false binary between defending people of color, women, Muslims, and the LGBT community and advocating for all working class Americans. Worth reading in full and sharing!

Issues Are the Way Forward

Would add, as has been addressed in the comments, that the intersection of climate/jobs is a big one, which younger voters may be particularly attuned to. - promoted by charley-on-the-mta

In 1964, conservatives were out of power. They coalesced around Goldwater, and all of their successes seem to follow from that campaign. We forget now, but before Goldwater (and during), “conservative” was an insult. He rallied them around their issues.

When conservatives are in power, their issues fall by the wayside. Let me be the millionth person to point out that deficits are only important when Democrats are in power.

But we shouldn’t overstate that. They used issues to motivate their movement. Now they use a variety of tools, including holding on to power and hating us.

However, there are true, hardcore conservatives out there, and they are up in arms that six years of Republican control of Congress hasn’t reduced spending. They’re furious that the party hasn’t lived up to its rhetoric. Many of these people led to Trump, because they wouldn’t listen to old news guys like Graham.

We need to think about our core issues. The biggest, I think, is jobs (not the “economy,” jobs).

The second biggest is homeland security.

The third biggest is infrastructure. If you’re allowed to telecommute, have you ever hesitated because you think the T won’t work? I have. Now imagine you don’t have the option to telecommute.

“Income inequality,” as we’ve come to call it, is not the issue. The real issue is employment, or underemployment, and therefore social mobility.

Houses cost too much, at least here. College costs too much. We can’t fix that, but we could do a lot to improve the public colleges. The proverbial family of four is struggling to have a comfortable standard of living.

Quality of life is an issue. Travel is a hassle; we need to look at the security apparatus we uncritically adopted 15 years ago (during a time of crisis, and with an architecture led by George Bush, Dick Cheney, and Joe Lieberman as our sole voice).

Guns are an issue. We can argue over what to do, but we can never forget that basic public safety is at risk.

The Global War on Terror is also an issue, but it’s one that we can’t really focus on when we’re out of power.

Add anything you like — but the point is that we focus on stuff the government can control, and we force the Republicans to address them. We can even share the credit if we have to, because the issues are what matter.

In short, we will make government work. And our base will see the improvement, and the effort will feed itself. A focus on issues will help us recruit committed candidates.

December BMG Stammtisch

Gonna need a drink ... - promoted by charley-on-the-mta

The Saloon

Come, enjoy some libations, and talk politics at the first post-truth stammtisch. Our now-regular monthly BMG Stammtisch will happen, as usual, the first Wednesday of the month — 7-December— at The Saloon in Davis Square at 7p.

Hope to see you there!

Trump finally finds election fraud


Top Trump campaign aide in Michigan guilty on 10 felony counts

Brandon Hall, the controversial west Michigan blogger who served as a key figure in the Donald Trump campaign’s organizing efforts across the state, was found guilty today on 10 felony counts of election fraud.

In Ottawa County Circuit Court, a jury took less than an hour to find Hall guilty of forging signatures on nominating petitions for a circuit judge candidate who was a Hall political ally. In 2012, Hall, now 27, admitted to signing fake signatures on the petition of Chris Houghtaling as they traveled to the state capital of Lansing to beat the candidate filing deadline. Hall used different pens and both hands to make the signatures look distinct.

Though he hopes to appeal the verdict, Hall now faces up to five years in prison when he is sentenced on Dec. 27. …

Taking The President-Elect Seriously, Not Literally

As Masha Gessen said, "Believe the autocrat." - promoted by charley-on-the-mta

Another piece cross posted from my blog at thevibesman.com. Hope you like it.

Yesterday a column was posted on CNN.com by a fellow named Brad Todd, titled “Dear journalists: Stop Taking Trump Literally”.  Mr. Todd says that while journalists take Trump literally, his voters take him seriously and that’s what matters. I read the piece and thought it was bad. After all, I had just a few days ago written a very long post on my own website about journalists doing the exact opposite, taking Trump seriously when he said he had an open mind to climate change and putting words in his mouth to indicate that he did have an open mind, rather than just taking a literal reading of what he said. I also thought the CNN article was written from the wrong perspective, an advertising man advising journalists to look at news as a for-profit industry, the reader as “customer,” and the important customers as Trump voters, and to stop trying to provide as much information possible in as complete a way as is necessary to tell the whole story to as many readers as may find it relevant. “This is seriously a bad take, and I mean that literally,” I said.

But yesterday, a twitter user named @ezlusztig posted a series of tweets that made me rethink the whole idea of taking Donald Trump seriously and not literally. Elliott Lusztig refers to a book by Hannah Arendt called “The Origin of Totalitarianism”, published in 1949, I have not read the book so I rely on his interpretation. He says Ms. Arendt noted how “decent liberals in 1930s Germany would ‘fact check’ the Nazis’ bizarre claims about Jews” failing to understand that the Nazis were not stating fact but intent, “not describing what was true, but what would have to be true to justify what they planned to do next.” Another user quotes Jean-Paul Sartre, from his 1944 book “Anti-Semite and Jew” as follows:

Never believe that anti-Semites are completely unaware of the absurdity of their replies. They know that their remarks are frivolous, open to challenge. But they are amusing themselves, for it is their adversary who is obliged to use words responsibly, since he believes in words. The anti-Semites have the right to play.

They even like to play with discourse for, by giving ridiculous reasons, they discredit the seriousness of their interlocutors. They delight in acting in bad faith, since they seek not to persuade by sound argument but to intimidate and disconcert. If you press them too closely, they will abruptly fall silent, loftily indicating by some phrase that the time for argument is past.

Lusztig concludes by referring to Trump’s tweeted falsehood about 3 million illegals voting in this context, which many mainstream news sources rushed to fact-check in its immediate aftermath:

What Trump is saying is not that 3m illegals voted. What he’s saying is: I’m going to steal the voting rights of millions of Americans.

I still think the main points of Todd’s piece are off base and many of his conclusions are wrong (at the very least it’s more relevant to cable-type news than factual reporting), but his ad-man sloganeering can be applied to many Trump’s statements in the context of seeing them as statements of intent rather than literal fact.

So when Trump tells you he thinks 3 million illegal immigrants voted, don’t take him literally and scream, “No they didn’t!” Take it seriously as a threat to take voting rights away from Americans. Often you can find corroboration of his “statement of intent”, like in his pick for Jeff Sessions for AG. Sessions has a 30-year “record of hostility” toward minority voting rights. The Justice Department has been involved in a number of lawsuits in recent years against states seen by the DoJ to be in violation of voting rights laws. This will likely end under Sessions, who cheered the 2013 gutting of the Voting Rights Act by the Supreme Court. Or look at his pick of Steve Bannon as chief strategist. Bannon once said he thought only property owners should be allowed to vote, which leaves out large groups of minorities, young people (especially students), people who live in population centers, and, of course, poor people.

When Trump tells you he thinks that protesters are acting in bad faith, or that he believes flag burners ought to be put in jail or denaturalized, don’t take him literally and start talking about whether the public supports a ban on flag burning or argue about whether protesters are right to protest. Take it seriously as a threat to free speech and the right to protest, from a man who as shown over and over again that he can’t stand being criticized and has repeatedly expressed his admiration for totalitarian states that jail dissidents. Look for corroboration in his own history of disdain toward free expression, like when he proposed fighting ISIS in America by closing down our mosques and even threatening to restrict our internet speech like North Korea and other totalitarian states, saying, ”Somebody will say, ‘Oh freedom of speech, freedom of speech.’ These are foolish people. We have a lot of foolish people.

When Trump tells you he thinks this media outlet or that reporter treats him unfairly, don’t take him literally and examine whether the treatment was indeed correct and fair. Take it seriously as a threat to curb freedom of the press and subject it to heavy government interference by a man who has expressed a desire to “open up the libel laws” to make it easier to sue the press for writing about him, and who has first-hand experience in how much fake propaganda (no matter who it comes from) and control of the news cycle can help or hurt someone in the eyes of the American people.

Trump often speaks in an obfuscating manner, and reporters have a hard time getting him to state a position clearly. Trump’s surrogates – and one has to assume this will be true of a White House Press Secretary as well, as far as one exists in a Trump administration – often don’t bother to try to interpret or clarify his statements, deferring back to him or making light of his off-the-cuff way of speaking. When they do provide a “clarification” it will often be an outright lie itself. So reporters interpret Trump’s words for themselves and hack up his quotes to make it seem he said things they would like him to have said. This will continue to be a problem. But making sense of Trump’s nonsense will not be as simple as just listening to exactly what he says. Behind a literal statement that seems so outrageous and obviously incorrect that it must be just a pretext for controversy lies a serious threat feeling its way out into the public discourse, looking for approval from Trump’s followers while providing a cover of plausible deniability to the people making the threat.

So the next time you hear Trump or one of his surrogates say something outrageous, don’t take it as a literal statement. Take it as a serious threat.

Please pay attention!

See you soon.

(follow me on twitter @davibesman)

On getting played.

Winning in politics consists of 1. Activating the persuaded; 2. Persuading the persuadable; 3. Discouraging and softening the opposition. Not converting, not even “defeating”, per se. Ideologically-committed people don’t really change their minds, except perhaps over years and decades. But they — we — are susceptible to divide-and-conquer, and the sowing of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD). We might keep this in mind as we process the outcome of the election, thinking about what-might-have-worked and what-will-work in the future.

George Monbiot lays out what we’re up against:

Yes, Donald Trump’s politics are incoherent. But those who surround him know just what they want, and his lack of clarity enhances their power. To understand what is coming, we need to understand who they are. I know all too well, because I have spent the past 15 years fighting them.

Over this time, I have watched as tobacco, coal, oil, chemicals and biotech companies have poured billions of dollars into an international misinformation machine composed of thinktanks, bloggers and fake citizens’ groups. Its purpose is to portray the interests of billionaires as the interests of the common people, to wage war against trade unions and beat down attempts to regulate business and tax the very rich. Now the people who helped run this machine are shaping the government.

I first encountered the machine when writing about climate change. The fury and loathing directed at climate scientists and campaigners seemed incomprehensible until I realised they were fake: the hatred had been paid for. The bloggers and institutes whipping up this anger were funded by oil and coal companies …

As usual, the left and centre (myself included) are beating ourselves up about where we went wrong. There are plenty of answers, but one of them is that we have simply been outspent. Not by a little, but by orders of magnitude. A few billion dollars spent on persuasion buys you all the politics you want. Genuine campaigners, working in their free time, simply cannot match a professional network staffed by thousands of well-paid, unscrupulous people.

You cannot confront a power until you know what it is. Our first task in this struggle is to understand what we face. Only then can we work out what to do.

Well, for a while at least, we were fighting them to a draw. Look at the number of votes for President, for Senate, and Congress: The center+left is indeed a majority coalition at this point, and as such it is unruly and fractious. There are real differences, sometimes on the technical/policy side, and sometimes on ethical/first principles.

But there is much that unites us, particularly a democratic, logical, liberal, inclusive and collaborative way of working on problems. We believe in making life easier, and that government should do what it can within reason to help.

The Trump agenda, as represented in his Cabinet picks, is in no way a majority agenda. By and large, people want to keep Medicare; they want to protect the environment; they’re not Bannon/Sessions-style racists. They do not wish to hand over more wealth and power to the already wealthy and powerful just because. If you ask them, they’ll tell you so themselves.

We the majority have been cheated — partly by the undemocratic peculiarities of our Constitution, and partly by a breakdown of respect for norms and Constitutional duties. Any of these things may be lawful, but they are surely unjust: The 2000 and 2016 elections cheated us out of Democratic presidents. The Senate cheated us out of a balance-tilting Supreme Court justice — do elections only have consequences if a Republican president is elected? And in general, we’ve been cheated out of a minimally functional legislative process that responds to the needs of the public in reasonable order. The entire American system presupposes a heavy dose of compromise; we have been deprived of even that.

We should have the hard talks. We should strategize and shore up weaknesses. But we should remember we’re up against massive machines of propaganda, дезинформация (disinformation), and obfuscation. They want us to be frustrated and blame each other, and not them. Don’t take the bait. We need each other.

(I should have written this months ago.)

Stephen Lynch (D-MA-8th) Backing Tim Ryan (D-OH) for Minority Leader-And so should his colleagues

Rep. Moulton is also backing Ryan, as noted in the comments. Reps. Clark, Kennedy, and McGovern are with Pelosi. Rep. Capuano to my knowledge remains uncommitted. Others? - promoted by david

In a press release, Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA-8th) officially announced he was coming on board the Tim Ryan challenge to Nancy Pelosi’s leadership.

The Boston Democrat said Monday he respects Pelosi, but believes Democrats need to change direction and widen their focus to regain the trust of hard-working American families who are the party’s traditional base.

The former ironworker says he believes Ryan understands the plight of American workers and can help the party win back the support of what Lynch describes as “lunch bucket Democrats” who struggle to raise families but haven’t had a raise in a long time.

Lynch says Democrats are increasingly seen as a party of narrow interests backed by elites by ignoring the economic struggles of average Americans.

Lynch calls the recent election “an epic failure and another lost opportunity.”

I’ve had my disagreements with Lynch in the past over Iraq, ACA, choice, and LGBT rights. But he has really transformed himself since the loss to Ed Markey as a progressive on social and foreign policy while retaining an authenticity and consistency about labor, fair trade, and progressive economics. He ran against NAFTA long before Donald Trump did. Lynch grew up in a housing project and is a former labor organizer and iron worker, so he knows what it’s like to punch a clock that doesn’t have your name embossed on it. I still disagree with him from time to time, but I respect that he has always been his own man which allows him to take on long odd causes like this one.

Tim Ryan was a consistent critic of the Iraq Warthe and someone from humble origins having been raised by a single mother and going to state school on a football scholarship. His political mentor was Jim Traficant, the crazy and occasionally corrupt odd ball who used to say ‘beam me up’ on the floor of the House got his start as a sheriff who didn’t jail foreclosure victims and took their side. Ryan has followed in those populists footsteps consistently trying to keep and bring jobs to his district long hard hit by foreign trade, automation, and globalization.

This is the kind of district our party lost and needs to get back. And putting someone like Ryan in charge would be the fresh change we need from a party that only raises money from elites to a party that returns to grassroots organizing. He wants the DCCC to emulate Organizing for America, he wants to get the Sanders wing a leadership role in the House, and he refuses to waver on our historic commitment to equal justice for all-he just wants to emphasize the economic aspects of that mission just as much as the social aspects.

It’s time for a change. Our party can’t continue to languish in the minority and only represent the coasts. It’s time to make the Democratic Party democratic again, and this is a start. I will call my Congressmen Seth Moulton and urge him to join his colleague. I encourage you to do the same.

Resiliency in the age of Trump

Part of living in the Trump era is to find the points of resiliency — the parts of government we can still influence for the better, amidst the onslaught of bad faith, disenfranchisement, and kleptocracy that will issue from Washington. The swamp will flourish; but we still have gardens to tend at the state and local levels.

Trump will try to reverse the Obama administration’s environmental progress at the federal level. That means that we should try harder, and stretch farther, in our local efforts.The action is now here. There is no reason why Massachusetts, its cities, and New England generally can’t keep on the path to renewable energy and climate resiliency — and even encourage other states to take up the charge as well. Since cities produce 75% of greenhouse gas emissions, there is plenty we can do at a local level. It does add up, and cities all over the country are indeed taking the lead. Witness the commitments made by 14 Greater Boston mayors: By 2050, Greater Boston will be net-zero in carbon; efficient/low energy buildings; smart growth; and so forth. This is great, and ought to be expanded and followed by others.

In doing so we’ll bring a number of other states along. We’ve had the highly successful Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative for several years now. There’s also the Transportation and Climate Initiative, comprising eleven northeastern states, whose purpose is to reduce emissions from the stubborn transportation sector. (One of their current initiatives is to install electric-car charging stations along the major highways of the Northeast.)

We need to fix the things that were left behind from this year’s energy bill. Specifically, we need a higher Renewable Portfolio Standard growth requirement — that simply means that the state’s utilities have to buy more energy from renewables, at a 2% year-over-year increase.

And needless to say, in order to de-carbonize transportation, we need to revive and sustain the MBTA. With a Governor and a Speaker of the House that refuse to provide anything other than Band-Aids to the T’s ongoing, maddening decay, one isn’t optimistic. We need the pressure of the gubernatorial race in 2018 to highlight the deficiencies in Baker’s no-revenue approach: He hasn’t fixed anything yet, and he’s not going to without a real commitment to the system.

These may all seem trivial by themselves, until one realizes that municipalities all over the country are doing many of the same things, coordinating with each other, learning best practices, and hopefully now moving with a sense of real urgency — panic — since we’ve got an actual madman at the helm.

What is your town doing to lower emissions?

Automation takes its toll

Lots of important stuff in this post, and in the excellent comment thread. - promoted by david

Automated toll gantry

I realized this holiday, while doing my annual shuttle duty for children arriving and departing Logan airport, that an era truly has ended. The toll plaza at the Callahan tunnel, along with all the others, is dark. A construction crew is working their way from left to right, demolishing the empty structure.

We have a great deal of conversation here, much of it acrimonious, about the loss of low-skill hourly jobs that pay well. We have read passionate and heart-felt expositions about the suffering of workers, about how the Democrats “abandoned” workers, about how the GOP “betrays” workers, and about the endless promises of both parties to “bring back” these “good jobs”. We are being told that we Democrats lost because we didn’t make such promises loudly enough and frequently enough.

So I want to use the automation of the MA Pike tolls as an example, and ask how serious we really are about all this. I note that this changes means that about 400 workers will lose their jobs. These have been well-paid jobs that do not require a college education. For decades, these jobs were political plums handed out as part of patronage deals routinely conducted by both parties.

The economics are unavoidable. Conservative organs like the Pioneer Institute tell us how much these jobs cost. As is always the case, the economics of automation are compelling.

So why are we not marching in the street to demand that these jobs be saved? Why do we Democrats join our conservative brothers in the GOP in removing the livelihood of these 400 toll collectors? Where is our much-vaunted solidarity with fellow working men and women?

This is part of my fundamental argument with our post-truth society, and especially with my fellow Democrats who argue that we “betrayed” labor — working-class white men especially, and even more than that, working-class white men without college degrees.

Did any of us demand that the toll booths stay in place to protect these jobs? NO. Hell no.